Trying to penetrate the statistical fog of war and surface some detail and data on the terrible conflict.

last updated 22nd Apr 2024

Ukrainian War Dead & Wounded

Estimates vary widely – and wildly. In a rare statement, on the second year anniversary of the invasion, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky cited 31,000 dead. Until then this terrible number has been top secret. However this is likely a low-ball number. After all, why reveal such an important data point to your enemy?

Back in 2023, some intelligence sources were estimating 60,000 dead. Unnamed “US officials” in the New York Times put the number as high as 70,000.

However, extremely diligent and deeply saddening research work by the groups Knyha Pamiyati (Memory Book of the Fallen for Ukraine) and Ukraine Losses analysing open-source data like death certificates, news reports and other registries, has established online archives of up to 35,000 named Ukrainian fallen.

The data is a little muddy. Law enforcement personnel, volunteers, and sometimes civilians are mixed alongside official military personnel. The data may also include casualties since 2014 (for many the official start of Russian aggression in Crimea), only counts up to end of 2023 and generally does not include the thousands “missing in action”. On balance, the true number may be 10, 20 maybe even 30% higher. Regardless, this war has inflicted a terrible cost to Ukraine’s fighting force. Maybe as much as 30% dead or wounded.

We used an average across all the estimates to arrive at our 46,000 figure alongside 100,000 wounded. That’s 60+ dying per day, 140+ wounded. (our data)

Russian War Dead

Similarly, estimates of Russian casualties are wide. 120,000 from our unnamed “US officials” to at least 45,000 deaths verified by Russia independent media outlet MediaZona using publicly available data. If Russian probate registries are included, that estimate swells to a staggering 75,000.

Here’s their graphic
A line chart comparing Ukrainian and Russian losses over time during the war. Russia's data is divided into two segments: named losses and (much higher) losses estimated by researchers. Both sides are incurred over 300 deaths per week on the battlefield.

We took an average across all quoted numbers to arrive at our grim estimate: 88,000 dead, 194,000 wounded. That’s 120+ per day killed, 250+ wounded. Truly awful. (our data)

Russian and Ukrainian Military Spending

Russian budget figures are somewhat obscured and difficult to clarify. Multiple sources cite different figures for Russia’s “defence” budget. The official number has been removed from Russian government websites. Recent estimates though put the 2024 number to be upwards of $110 billion, nearly double the pre-invasion 2021 figure. That would put it at around 30% of Russia’s government budget, and close to 7% of its total GDP. (Most countries spend less than 2% of GDP on their military).

Ukraine’s military spending has, of course, sky-rocketed since the invasion. From 3% of GDP in 2021 to a staggering 20% in 2024. Knock-on effects and reduced funding for other sectors of its economy has led to substantial dependency on overseas aid from friendly nations…

See our data.

Who’s given how much to Ukraine?

Top of mind in many nations and political spheres is this continued financial support for Ukraine – military, humanitarian, economic – and how sustainable this essential lifeline might be.

Thanks to the diligently collected data from the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker, we have a clear idea of who is sending most financial aid to Ukraine. Our graphic visualises only military aid, but over 50% of the money flows to humanitarian and economic causes (essential to bolster Ukraine’s faltering war-battered state).

Some nations’ contributions focus on military. Most of the USA’s delayed $61bn aid package, for example, is for ammunition, missiles, and military equipment. Others like Japan, Belgium, Switzerland and EU institutions are directing their donations primarily to non-military causes.

To date (Mar 2024), around $170bn in total aid has flowed into Ukraine with another $100bn promised this year. Data.

The Ukraine Support US Senate Bill

This controversial bill, much battled over in the US Senate, Congress and media, aimed to direct around $61bn of mostly military aid to Ukraine, as well as substantial packages to Israel (~$15bn) and Taiwan (~$4bn).

We read and analysed the bill and did our best to create a breakdown spreadsheet. The bill is long (15,000 words) with several amendments, a little double counting and many mentions of a mysterious submarine base(?). Some larger figures – particularly the humanitarian and refugee assistance portions – are not clearly broken down so it’s difficult to ascertain what went to Ukraine versus Israel and Taiwan. We tried! (We even asked Chat GPT and Anthropic’s Claude 3 to analyse it for us. Here are the results.)
See a sheet of the breakdown.

» A good data story about US contributions from the Council on Foreign Relations

As ever, if you have better figures, clearer data or any updates, we welcome your input. We will happily update our data and graphics. Please supply sources and citations.